It’s almost time for President-elect Donald J. Trump to simply become President Trump, and start implementing his agenda. RISMedia recently explored how real estate industry experts see Trump’s return to the White House impacting housing, while Realtor.com® has opined on whether there will be a “Trump bump” for housing in 2025.
But what about the boots (and shoes) on the ground? How do the agents who will likely be impacted most by various new policies anticipate things will play out?
“I am hopeful the Trump administration will change some regulations/legislation regarding housing,” says Jeffrey Decatur, a broker associate with RE/MAX Capital in Latham, New York. “The real estate industry has been suffering from a lack of inventory and higher building costs. Some of the costs are due to regulation red tape. In New York, builders voice opinions about a barrage of regulations and limitations. It may be helpful to reduce some of that.
“It seems there is always something to be lobbying for to keep the cost of building manageable. Reducing rates would probably help, too. However, that could increase the number of buyers in the market, causing prices to increase. I have been around for 12%-plus rates and was excited when they went below 10%. Never did I expect to see 3%. Those were extenuating circumstances post-Covid. Historically, 6% – 8% has been the average. I do have concerns about DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion), and hope that any legislation/changes protect everyone’s rights to homeownership.”
John Walkup, co-founder of UrbanDigs, a real estate data analytics company, expressed cautious optimism about the housing market in 2025.
“While we await clarity on housing-related policy changes, such as mortgage-interest deductions, the market will continue to be influenced primarily by broader macroeconomic factors,” he says. “Buyers have recently shown resilience despite higher mortgage rates, and have begun adapting to the new normal higher-rate environment.
“Regarding election years versus non-election years, if we exclude the two outliers of 2008 (beginning of the great recession) and 2021 (peak pandemic recovery), the average deal volumes for each set are only 3% apart. This tells me that while elections certainly can impact the real estate market, the macroeconomic backdrop is far more important.
“The estimated end-of-year volume for 2024 is right in the middle of the last 20 years. On its own, this looks like a push-pull between election-year uncertainty and macroeconomic normalcy. But if we put 2024 in the context of the interest rate increase-induced slowdown (2022 and 2023), the notable improvement hints at an improved economic outlook, and not just a post-election bump.”
At the Coldwell Banker Warburg office in New York City, broker Sean Adu-Gyamfi and agents Michael C. Weiner and Parisa Afkhami all expressed opinions.
Weiner posited that how the 2025 market plays out will be affected by a variety of factors.
“People typically overestimate how much impact a presidential administration has on housing,” he says. “People buy and sell for myriad reasons, often driven by life events or life stages. Moreover, an economy the size of the United States is influenced by numerous factors. On the margins, and certainly from an attention perspective, an administration’s tax and regulatory policies do make a difference. Thus, I’m optimistic about housing on the margins, as the widely recognized problem of inadequate new housing is addressed at both local and national levels.”
Adu-Gyamfi puts more emphasis on Trump needing to take action quickly.
“We need this administration to solve our housing affordability and lack of inventory problem,” he says. “We do have a major housing crisis right now. Incentives for homebuyers, especially first-time homebuyers and developers, should be something they should discuss early and often in the first few months of 2025.”
Afkhami doesn’t think the issue is about politics or the incoming president.
“The conversation we should all be paying attention to is the economy at large, which will ultimately impact real estate. We are seeing a flurry of activity as (2024) is coming to a close. It remains to be seen what 2025 will bring in real estate markets. Predictions are promising, but there are some factors to be considered and analyzed, such as tariffs, inflation, low housing inventory, affordable housing, etc.”
Pam Rosser Thistle, an agent for Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices Fox & Roach, REALTORS® in Philadelphia, looks cautiously forward to the Trump years, as he has proven to be pro-business in many ways.
“Regardless of the candidate who wins, the certainty of an election being over always leads to stronger real estate activity,” she says. “I am feeling positive for 2025. Rates will likely stay in the sixes, with exceptions for different programs. It’s hard to tell if inflation will cool down.
“In my Center City Philadelphia market, there is enough inventory to provide buyers with choices in various price points. And a high percentage of owners have no mortgages, which can hamper movement if potential sellers are not motivated to give up a pandemic-low rate. I can’t see Trump being in favor of fines or jail time for REALTORS® who break a rule of opening a door without a signed buyer-agency agreement. I believe this administration will be more pro-entrepreneur.”
