What should you expect from home prices in the new year? The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, tracking single-family home price changes in November 2024, suggests that year-over-year prices are still growing—but some previously booming areas fell behind.
The annual gain in single-family home prices during November 2024 was 3.8%. This breaks a seven-month streak of decelerating price growth, but the result is still fairly in-line with the gains that Case-Shiller recorded in September 2024 (3.9%) and October 2024 (3.8%).
“Looking ahead, early housing market indicators suggest that the 2025 spring home-buying season may look very similar to 2024—more inventory but also challenging affordability, suggesting that home price appreciation will continue to slow, averaging about 2.4% for the year,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp in a statement.
In a release, Realtor.com®’s Sr. Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones also noted the recent climbs in mortgage rates “could stifle buyer demand once again, making for a bumpy start to 2025.”
The Case-Shiller National Index was down slightly from October 2024, dropping from 324.22 to 323.91. “With the exception of pockets of above-trend performance, national home prices are trending below historical averages,” said Brian D. Luke (S&P’s head of commodities, real & digital assets) in the report.
However, despite slow rising, prices remain quite high; Luke described the November 2024 National Index as an “18th consecutive all-time high on a seasonally adjusted basis.” Indeed, of the index’s 20 surveyed metro areas, 19 experienced monthly price growth in November.
Regional breakdown
In Realtor.com’s release, Jones noted that the regional variations in price increases suggest that “buyers across the country face vastly different market conditions. Markets in the Midwest and Northeast continued to see substantial demand, resulting in sustained price growth in November, while the South and West continued to soften.”
Of the 20 large metro areas surveyed, the ones with the highest composite indices (meaning highest prices compared to base value in the year 2000) were on the West Coast or in Florida:
- Miami (441.73)
- Los Angeles (436.98)
- San Diego (435.32)
- Seattle (386.87)
- Tampa (381.74)
The metro areas with the lowest composite indices (lowest prices compared to base value in 2000) were predominantly found in the Midwest:
- Detroit (190.02)
- Cleveland (194.26)
- Chicago (209.91)
- Minneapolis (240.66)
- Atlanta (247.92)
Most of the surveyed metro areas experienced a monthly drop from October to November. Those with the greatest drop were:
- San Francisco (a 0.76% drop)
- Seattle (0.74%)
- Tampa (0.65%)
- Dallas (0.54%)
- Denver (0.47%)
The only metro areas that recorded a monthly increase were:
- Boston (0.42%)
- Miami (0.26%)
- New York (0.25%)
- Los Angeles (0.04%)
- Phoenix (0.01%)
Conversely, the only metro area that experienced an annual decrease was Tampa (a 0.37% drop). The largest annual increases were found in:
- New York (7.32%)
- Chicago (6.21%)
- Washington, D.C. (5.87%)
- Las Vegas (5.57%)
- Cleveland (5.42%)
Luke, analyzing the statewide findings for regional disparities, noted the gains in the Northeast and declines in the “once red hot” South and West, which he described as “trending well below average growth.”
“Markets in New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago are well above norms, with New York leading the way. Unsurprisingly, the Northeast was the fastest-growing region, averaging a 6.1% annual gain,” said Luke. “Tampa’s decline is the first annual drop for any market in over a year. Returns for the Tampa market and entire Southern region rank in the bottom quartile of historical annual gains, with data going back to 1988.”
Luke, noting that New York has posted the highest price gain rate for seven months and strong Q4 2024 reports from U.S. banks, speculated in the report that “this could set the Big Apple up as we close out the year.”
For the full Case-Shiller report, click here.
