The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently released its economic and mortgage market forecasts for year-end 2021 and for 2022.
Here’s what the organization predicts.
For year-end 2021:
- Purchase originations will rise to $1.61 trillion, eclipsing the previous all-time high of $1.51 trillion in 2005.
- Refinance originations will come in at $2.32 trillion—down from $2.63 trillion in 2020 but the third highest level recorded.
- Mortgage originations are expected to finish at around $3.93 trillion—slightly below 2020’s record year ($4.1 trillion).
- After a decline of around 2.3% in 2020, the economy is expected to rebound to a growth rate of 5.5%.
- Total mortgage originations could decrease to $2.61 trillion in 2022, as more of the activity shifts to the purchase market.
- Refinance originations could drop to $870 billion.
- Purchase originations could eclipse 2021’s record high and reach $1.74T, driven by strong housing demand and rising home prices and sales.
- Home-price growth could moderate to 5.1%.
- Mortgage rates could rise throughout the year and reach 4% by December 2022.
- Economic growth could be at 4% in 2022, with the unemployment rate declining to 3.5% by the end of the year.