New risk-modeling data shows that nearly 7.8 million homes with more than $2.3 trillion in combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) are at risk of hurricane-related damages this year, according to CoreLogic’s 2022 Hurricane Report, released Wednesday.
The report also revealed nearly 33 million homes with nearly $10.5 trillion in combined RCV are at risk of hurricane-force wind damages. CoreLogic reported that the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) forecasts an above-normal 2022 hurricane season with as many as 21 named storms and up to 10 hurricanes, three-to-six of which could be major hurricanes, they said
The study, which analyzes hurricane and storm surge and wind risk exposure for single-family residences (SFRs) and multifamily residences (MFRs) along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, calculates the RCV of at-risk homes using the combined cost of construction materials, building equipment and labor, and assumes total 100% destruction of the property.
Data includes the top 15 metropolitan areas and states with the greatest number of SFRs and MFRs at risk for storm surge and wind damage:
- The New York City metro area has the greatest risk, with nearly 900,000 homes with more than $432 billion in RCV at risk of storm surge damage and more than four million homes with more than $2.2 trillion in RCV at risk of wind damage.
- The Miami metro area follows, with nearly 770,000 homes with nearly $193 billion in RCV at risk of storm surge damage and more than two million homes with more than $500 billion in RCV at risk of wind damage.
- At a state level, Florida, Louisiana and Texas have the greatest number of homes at risk of storm surge damage with more than three million; nearly 911,000; and more than 542,000 homes at risk, respectively.
- Texas tops the list for hurricane wind risk with more than 8.8 million homes at risk.
“This hurricane season could be particularly severe for the U.S. Gulf Coast due to warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, an ongoing La Niña, and a stronger-than-average loop current in the Gulf of Mexico,” said Dr. Daniel Betten, chief meteorologist at CoreLogic. “Although La Nina events typically occur once every three years, this fall will likely be the fifth La Nina event over the last seven years.”
Storm damage impacts not just individual houses, but the larger housing market as well. Storms bring spikes in mortgage delinquency, witnessed after the landfall of Hurricane Ida in August 2021; mortgage delinquency rates in Houma, Louisiana rose from 1% to 7%. Post storm reconstruction will also bring a slowed market, due to loss of housing inventory, price drops, and weakened rental rates due to relocation, CoreLogic noted.
For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.