In the keynote presentation to open RISMedia’s recent Real Estate’s Rocking in the New Year virtual event, Brian Buffini, chairman and founder of Buffini & Company, expressed the strong view that while a turnaround to good times is in store for the 2026 residential real estate market, brokers and agents must nevertheless be totally committed to traditional fundamentals instead of relying too heavily on potentially passing-fad social media trends.
Buffini, known for his annual industry predictions webinar that draws tens of thousands of attendees, and whose coaching company experienced its best fourth quarter since 2019, said the market is characterized by a shift, with 20% fewer agents and 14% more sales projected (according to NAR), creating opportunities for those who remain.
Drawing comparisons to the strong markets of several years ago, Buffini said 2026 will see a return to the market rhythm of such times, with a strong spring selling season and inventory levels and days on market expected to be similar to the good times.
“This is going to be a really good year for real estate professionals and leaders who approach it in a professional capacity,” he stressed. “But agents need to be back out in front of their customers doing the fundamentals. Brokers need to be looking at recruiting and leading accordingly, and then raising production for everybody.”
Buffini noted that it’s important for agents to simply do their best in the current environment, as opposed to trying to replicate times gone by.
“There are many agents waiting for 2021 to come back, and many consumers waiting for it to come back, but those days are gone,” he said. “Basically, the market time has kind of doubled in regards to obtaining an offer. And then many times when you get the offer, one out of every seven transactions has fallen apart and you have to sell the property again. So what does that affect? Cash flow. What’s the answer for that? Volume and quality of lead generation.”
Mortgage rates will be workable this year, predicted Buffini, with the numbers between 5.8% and 6.2%. “But when the rate drops a full point, there will be an additional 550,000 home sales,” he said. “I think we’re going to see about 400,000 to 450,000 more sales next year.”
Acknowledging that the number of agents in the business this year will likely decrease, Buffini positioned it as a positive for those who remain.
“NAR’s outgoing president, Kevin Sears, shared how they’ve built their budget on the fact that 240,000 members will walk away this year and possibly another 100,000 after that,” he explained. “Now that could be very depressing, but I want you to think about it in terms of the actual integrity of the real estate business. We’re talking about 20% less agents in 2026 and 14% more sales. That’s an extraordinary change in the market. And what does it mean? Well, the Irish economist puts it this way: ‘More beer for us.’ The pros will stay in the game and work the fundamentals, build relationships and be in it for the long haul. So that’s what we’re looking at, more beer for us.”
Marketing and social media
“If you look online, if you see what’s going on, what’s been marketed to agents about how to promote their business, 90% of it is social media and AI-related,” said Buffini. “I’m certainly not opposed to AI. I think it’s great. But most people’s marketing approach is absolutely not set up for what’s actually happening, and who’s buying. People are trying to be influencers and having TikTok and social media, and that’s where they’re spending all their time and money.
“You need content. I’m bringing content to you, but what’s more important is fundamentals. How does your marketing and your approach and your content line up with who the home sellers are and who the homebuyers are? All the social media stuff appeals to younger people, but younger people are not buying homes.”
The key, according to Buffini, is whether a brokerage’s marketing is aligned with who’s buying and who’s selling.
“I’m 40 years in the business,” he concluded. “This is a belly-to-belly, voice-to-voice contact sport. I see all these recruiting programs that don’t involve brokers or managers talking to agents. Forget it. It’s a contact sport. You have to intensify your contact in 2026.”
To view the full presentation, go here.
