A new survey from Coldwell Banker Real Estate suggests the mortgage rate “lock-in effect” that has constrained housing supply for the past several years may finally be starting to ease.
The company’s 2026 Home Shopping Season Report, based on a survey of more than 700 active Coldwell Banker agents conducted between March 23 and April 6, identifies five trends shaping the market this spring season. Chief among them are that 35% of sellers currently working with a Coldwell Banker agent hold a mortgage rate below 5% and are listing anyway.
“Working through the lock-in effect will take time,” said Jason Waugh, president of Coldwell Banker Affiliates, in a press release. “But we are starting to see early signs that it is loosening, particularly in the Midwest and in the West, which could have a meaningful impact on inventory.”
While economists and real estate professionals have broadly agreed that low rates homeowners “locked in” back in 2020-21 have hampered the market, they have differed on the severity of the impact or the timeline for it to fade. Recent national data shows that many homeowners appear loathe to sell and let go of these low rates.
But agents surveyed by Coldwell Banker point to life circumstances as the primary driver, with 36% saying clients are listing due to personal necessity rather than market timing. Still, 61% of agents say the lock-in effect remains a major or moderate factor in seller decision-making.
The report also spotlights a segment agents are calling “comeback buyers”—homebuyers who paused their search over the past two years and are now reentering the market.
Agents estimate this group accounts for roughly 20% of today’s active homebuyers. Notably, 75% of agents working with these returning buyers say they’re coming back with essentially the same budget they had before, suggesting affordability constraints haven’t meaningfully improved for most. A quarter report comeback buyers have increased their budgets, a trend most pronounced in the Midwest.
Despite rates remaining elevated by near-term standards, the survey found that 80% of agents say their buyers are actively purchasing and not waiting for rates to fall further. Only 20% of agents report that buyers are sitting on the sidelines for better conditions, though that share is higher among agents in the South.
Overall, 43% of agents say this spring is shaping up to be busier than last year.
Environmental concerns are gaining ground in buyer decision-making. Almost one-third (31%) of agents nationally say climate-related risks—including home insurance costs, wildfire exposure, flood zones and hurricane risk—are a bigger factor than they were just one year ago. That figure climbs to 35% in the South and 39% in the West, regions with the most direct exposure to extreme weather events.
Only 27% of agents say climate risk rarely factors into buyer behavior in their market.
Perhaps the starkest finding in the report is how divergent local market conditions have become. Almost three-quarters (74%) of agents in the Northeast and 70% in the Midwest describe their markets as seller’s markets.
In the South and the West the picture is starkly different: 56% of Southern agents and 46% of Western agents describe buyer’s markets in their areas. Just 25% of agents nationally say their market is balanced.
“Buyers are ready to act, but they want homes that provide long-term financial and emotional value, and they’re not rushing into any decision,” Waugh said. “On the seller side, many homeowners are moving because their life circumstances necessitate a change, driving them to list even when they’re losing a historically low mortgage rate in the process. With motivations high, there is opportunity on both sides of the market, but this is a far more measured environment than the frenzy we saw immediately following the pandemic.”
