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Existing-Home Sales Down; Fed Rate Cut Likely to Improve Market

“Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Home Agents
By Michael Catarevas
September 19, 2024
Reading Time: 4 mins read
Sales

Business man's hand and house screen with downward arrows

Existing-home sales fell in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Three out of four major U.S. regions posted sales declines, while the Midwest registered no change. Year-over-year, sales slipped in three regions but remained stable in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales—completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—descended 2.5% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million in August. Year-over-year, sales retracted 4.2% (down from 4.03 million in August 2023).

“Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a statement. “The home-buying process, from the initial search to getting the house keys, typically takes several months.”

Total housing inventory registered at the end of August was 1.35 million units, up 0.7% from July and 22.7% from one year ago (1.1 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.1 months in July and 3.3 months in August 2023.

“The rise in inventory—and, more technically, the accompanying months’ supply—implies homebuyers are in a much-improved position to find the right home and at more favorable prices,” Yun added. “However, in areas where supply remains limited, like many markets in the Northeast, sellers still appear to hold the upper hand.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $416,700, up 3.1% from one year ago ($404,200). All four U.S. regions posted price increases.

Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant focused on how expectations have shifted as 2024 sales have so far failed to rise above recent lows. 

“Year-to-date, home sales activity is tracking more than 2% below last year’s level, which was the lowest level of transactions in more than 30 years. At the end of last year, it was expected that mortgage rates would come down and home sales would increase in 2024. However, inventory stayed low, rates remained persistently high, and affordability worsened, shutting some buyers out of the market,” she said in a statement.

But the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points yesterday could boost sales here at the tail-end of the year, Sturtevant projected. At the same time, challenges remain, particularly around affordability.

“Affordability is still going to be a challenge for many buyers, despite lower rates. In August, the median home price rose by 3.1% year-over-year, and prices have risen by 50% over the past five years, according to NAR’s data. While well-priced homes will still attract a lot of buyers, sellers need to be prepared to negotiate not only on price, but also on concessions, including home inspection and appraisal contingencies, and closing cost assistance,” Sturtevant said. 

Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale said in a statement that “so far, those buyers who waited, may be glad that they did. Not only have mortgage rates continued to fall into early September, but we’re also nearing a seasonal sweet spot for homebuyers, when competition usually wanes, home prices ease, and time on market tends to grow. In fact, these seasonal trends led Realtor.com to identify Sept. 29 – Oct. 5 as the best time to buy for home shoppers nationwide, with some regional variation before and after this week in markets around the country.”

Hale also agreed that affordability is a primary concern right now, and noted that buyers will have to decide whether to start (or continue) their home search during the slower winter months, or put off their home-buying journey until next spring.

According to the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index, properties typically remained on the market for 26 days in August, up from 24 days in July and 20 days in August 2023.

First-time buyers were responsible for 26% of sales in August—matching the all-time low last seen in November 2021—and down from 29% in both July 2024 and August 2023. All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in August, down from 27% in both July and one year ago.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 19% of homes in August, down from 13% in July 2024 and 16% in August 2023.

Distressed sales—foreclosures and short sales—represented 1% of sales in August, unchanged from last month and the previous year.

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.2% as of Sept. 12. That’s down from 6.35% one week ago and 7.18% one year ago.

Single-family home sales decreased 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.48 million in August, down 3.3% from the previous year. The median existing single-family home price was $422,100 in August, up 2.9% from August 2023.

Existing condominium and co-op sales in August were identical to July at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000 units, down 11.6% from one year ago (430,000 units). The median existing condo price was $366,500 in August, up 3.5% from the prior year ($354,200).

Regional breakdown

Existing-home sales in the Northeast faded 2% from July to an annual rate of 480,000, which was identical to August 2023. The median price in the Northeast was $503,200, up 7.7% from last year.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales were unchanged in August at an annual rate of 920,000, down 5.2% from the previous year. The median price in the Midwest was $315,400, up 3.8% from August 2023.

Existing-home sales in the South waned 3.9% from July to an annual rate of 1.73 million in August, down 6% from one year before. The median price in the South was $367,000, up 1.6% from one year earlier.

In the West, existing-home sales declined 2.7% in August to an annual rate of 730,000, down 1.4% from a year ago. The median price in the West was $622,500, up 2.2% from August 2023.

Key highlights

  • Existing-home sales retreated 2.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million. Sales slid 4.2% from one year ago.
  • The median existing-home sales price rose 3.1% from August 2023 to $416,700, the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
  • The inventory of unsold existing homes improved by 0.7% from the previous month to 1.35 million at the end of August, or the equivalent of 4.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
Tags: Danielle HaleExisting HomesExisting-Home SalesHome Saleshousing market dataLawrence YunLisa SturtevantMLSNewsFeedNARReal Estate DataReal Estate Sales
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Michael Catarevas

Michael Catarevas is a senior editor for RISMedia.

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