The United States added 115,000 jobs in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, significantly beating analysts’ expectations as employers continue to shrug off high energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty—something buyers and sellers have been less willing to do.
With an unemployment rate now at 4.3% and an average 48,000 payrolls added per month this year (after revisions), the economy appears still resilient in the face of AI disruption and the United State’s war against Iran, which drove up fuel prices and undercut consumer confidence.
Home sales so far have failed to rebound, though, after many economists predicted 2026 was when the housing market would finally turn a corner after almost four years of historically low transactions (hovering around 4 million existing homes sold, compared to around 5.4 million pre-pandemic).
“Today’s report is a net positive for a spring market that has shown resilience but remains fragile,” said Realtor.com® Senior Economist Jake Krimmel in a statement.
“Still resilience to economic shock doesn’t imply immunity,” he added. “Mortgage rates have been heading back up, threatening to claw back affordability gains buyers were counting on this season, and consumer confidence remains in the doldrums.”
According to the latest data, residential construction jobs fell 1.5%, down about 1,500 jobs. Employment in the “real estate rental and leasing” category, which broadly includes everything from property managers to agents to REIT managers, fell 5.4%, or a little over 5,000 jobs.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni was noticeably less optimistic, noting that job growth was largely concentrated in “just a few sectors.”
“All in, the job market is holding together reasonably well, but it is not as strong as the April headline would suggest,” he said in a statement, also pointing out that the total number of people employed or actively looking for work continues to decline.
Data on sales this year has offered a mixed, up-and-down picture, with a recent surge in new construction sales but tepid movement in existing sales and pending contracts.
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant noted this “sluggish” market, but pointed to some glimmers of hope alongside the “resilient” labor market report.
“An uptick in listings and pending sales in April suggests that people may be coming to terms with ambiguity and are re-setting expectations,” she said in a statement.
Buyers might be the biggest beneficiaries, according to Sturtevant, even as affordability keeps many on the sidelines.
“Inventory is rising and homes are taking longer to sell in most markets,” she noted. “In the April jobs report, wages increased by 3.6% year-over-year, outpacing the pace of home-price growth, and providing opportunities for buyers.”
Krimmel claimed that in the big picture, the latest data was indisputably a positive sign for the industry, a “steady foundation” even without any immediate signs of quick relief on rates, or a rush by sellers to join the spring market.
“For buyers, sellers and builders, that stabilization and positive momentum matters more than any single month of data,” he said. “The next question is whether this trend holds and becomes something for consumers and the housing market to build on this summer.”
Fed watching
As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to end his term as chair of the central bank before the next rate cut decision, the chance of rate cuts does not appear to be any likelier, even under the oversight of a new chair chosen by President Donald Trump—who has demanded lower rates and pressured the Fed to cut quickly.
With Powell staying on as a voting member and other Fed members still strongly in favor of a cautious approach, economists said this month’s job report was not likely to change that trajectory.
“MBA expects that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts for the foreseeable future, and there is enough concern about the labor market to keep at least some potential homebuyers hesitant about their own job situation,” Fratantoni said.
Krimmel saw a silver lining, though, noting that some Fed members have floated the possibility of a rate hike, largely based on tariff inflation.
“For the Fed and the broader economic outlook, a steadying labor market is genuinely good news,” he said. “A labor market that isn’t deteriorating gives a divided Fed and the new Chair the cover to focus squarely on prices. Between the war, tariffs and recent tax cuts, inflationary pressure abounds.”
Where does that leave housing, as home price increases slow, rates hold high and sales stutter?
Krimmel said the next few weeks or months could be key, particularly upcoming inflation reports which will provide insight into consumer’s purchasing power and wage growth—as well as the impact of the war and import duties.
The labor market stabilization will also have to hold steady, he added, for the housing market to build any momentum.
“In the months ahead, the labor market needs to crawl before it walks, and walk before it runs,” Krimmel said.
